The Next Bubble - Alternative Energies? Commodities? Fill-in-the-Blank.
Lisa | Nov 15, 2008 | Comments 4
What will be the next big boom? I know, I should let those gangsters on Wall Street pick up the pieces from their last bubble before imagining the next. But I can’t help mulling over the question.
And with Obama at the helm, the yellow brick road is paved to Oz for alternative energy development. Obama has already said he would heavily tax coal plants, and other energies that contribute to global warming.
I’m sure that on the flip side he’ll be hanging out the tax break carrot to both alternative energy developers and users.
And for a few years it will grow, and fast. Lots of start-ups, with lots of stocks, and lots of speculating investors. And of course, lots of scams.
That will set the stage for the alternative energy bubble to end all bubbles.
That is, until the next one.
“Next bubble” predictions around the blogs.
Here’s a few. If you have any other ideas, or have heard of any other speculations, would love to hear about it in a comment.
At Seeking Alpha, Greg Feirman, predicts that commodities are next. He says:
“With the emerging world industrializing, the squeeze on the fixed amount of materials in the earth is poised to intensify over the next 15-20 years. “
Greg says that this could potentially lead to countries warring over who gets the copper, oil or gold.
*****
The BioHealth Investor has another take on it. They think that the Contract Research Organizations, or CROs, are popping as we speak. CROs have been growing incrementally over the last few years, as drugs go off patent, spawning a generic version that must be manufactured. Also, pharmaceutical companies will outsource CROs as “manufacturing plants,” or “research labs”, or “development labs”, for a period of time, rather than having to incur the expense of building their own facility.
Business for CROs boomed the last few years, as big pharma was making modest cutbacks, tightening their belts after a period of huge growth. And then the economic slow down started. Pharma is cutting back big time, and as they slow down, they no longer need to higher CROs. Result- CRO stocks are plummeting.
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At the Motley Fool they’re speculating that college tuition will have to pop. Costs at colleges and universities have been increasing at a rate of 6% per year since the dot com boom of the 90s. At some point, very smart kids that would have once gone to top rated schools, will have to settle for a lesser expensive option because they can’t afford the tuition. Scores at top rated schools will drop, and they’ll have to lower tuition to attract better students.
*****
Most every American is now bound to the stock market with their retirement plan.
Who’s great idea was that!?!?
The investor business is booming! And no one is reading balance sheets and studying companies any more. Wall Street is a market that fluctuates based on rumors. Fiction rules over fact. Stocks get bought up at high market value even when there’s no company assets to support it.
I’m getting depressed thinking about it. Has Wall Street become nothing more than bubbles?
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